Amid Rising China Tensions, Taiwan Assembles Drone Force to Counter Potential Invasion

Amid rising tensions with China, Taiwan is urgently developing a domestic drone industry as part of its “porcupine strategy” to deter a potential invasion. In June, Taiwan showcased its growing capabilities at a drone expo in Su’ao Bay, displaying sea drones like the stealth Carbon Voyager 1 and explosives-carrying Sea Shark 800. These are part of Taiwan's effort to counter a future amphibious assault by China across the 180-km Taiwan Strait.

Unlike Russia’s land-based invasion of Ukraine, a Chinese attack would require complex maritime operations. Taiwan's mountainous terrain and shallow beaches present natural defenses, but Beijing's military modernization threatens to overcome them. Taiwan is therefore prioritizing asymmetric warfare, including drones for surveillance, combat, and suicide missions.

Taiwan launched its “Drone National Team” initiative in 2022 to foster a homegrown drone sector. The government aims to produce 15,000 dual-use drones monthly by 2028 and has placed orders for over 4,000 drones, including 700 military-grade UAVs. However, defense experts argue these numbers are insufficient. A U.S. Naval Institute report warns that thousands of drones would be lost daily in a real conflict, and Ukraine’s plan to produce 200,000 drones monthly by 2025 dwarfs Taiwan’s output.

U.S. Admiral Philip Davidson has predicted China could be ready to invade by 2027. Yet Taiwan’s drone development faces supply chain and strategic hurdles. Many components still come from China, raising security concerns. Key parts like GPS modules, sensors, and drone batteries are imported, often at high cost. Full domestic production remains limited, although the state-run National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) is working to develop indigenous alternatives.

Taiwanese experts stress the need to accelerate development and tailor drone strategies to Taiwan’s geography, such as launching drones from jungle-covered mountains. Critics say current planning underemphasizes scenarios like urban combat or post-landing defense. While Taiwan has made progress, including forming its first army drone unit and integrating UAVs into the navy, its efforts may still fall short without broader strategic alignment.

Taiwan’s drone exports grew from just 290 in 2023 to over 3,400 in early 2025, but the industry’s expansion is limited by financial risks and geopolitical concerns. Companies worry about repercussions from China, such as sanctions similar to those placed on U.S. firm Skydio. Taiwan is also trying to reduce dependency on Chinese parts by seeking supply chain partnerships with countries like Japan and Germany.

Despite challenges, President William Lai Ching-te envisions Taiwan becoming an “Asian hub” for drone manufacturing. But experts caution that political will is as critical as technological capacity. Without cohesive planning and faster progress, Taiwan risks being unprepared for a rapidly evolving security threat. As KMT official Alexander Huang notes, simply allocating funds is not enough—Taiwan must act swiftly and strategically to ensure its drone strategy can effectively defend against a potential Chinese invasion.