Chocolate Prices Expected to Rise, But Market Outlook Bright for Next Year

Over recent years, chocolate prices have been rising sharply, creating concern among consumers and retailers alike. This surge is primarily due to high cocoa prices, driven by adverse weather conditions, pest outbreaks, and supply constraints in West Africa, which accounts for around three-quarters of global cocoa production. These elevated cocoa prices have coincided with broader retail price inflation worldwide, further increasing the cost of chocolate products and affecting consumer demand for sweet treats. A 2024 survey by the U.K. consumer group Which? revealed that chocolate had the highest average annual inflation in grocery stores, at 11%, while in the U.S., products like Hershey’s Kisses experienced a 12% year-on-year price increase.

Despite some easing in cocoa futures in 2025, with prices dropping from $8,177 per metric ton in January to around $7,855 in August, the impact on chocolate prices has been lagged. Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan, explained that chocolatiers are still grappling with the elevated costs from late 2024 when cocoa reached record highs. This lagged effect has translated into higher business costs, which have been passed on to consumers, alongside ongoing market deficits in cocoa bean availability. Allen noted that this situation is likely to maintain higher chocolate prices for an extended period.

However, there is some optimism for the upcoming Easter season. Industrial demand from manufacturers is softening just as supply improves. Production is ramping up, weather conditions are stabilizing, and new cocoa plantings in Ecuador and Brazil are maturing. These factors may help moderate prices in the near future, though J.P. Morgan analysts caution that cocoa prices are expected to remain structurally high at around $6,000 per metric ton for a longer period.

Structural supply challenges remain a key concern. Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, highlighted longstanding productivity issues in the world’s two largest cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Diseases and years of underinvestment in these regions mean that global supply will continue to be tight, even if West Africa experiences favorable weather conditions in the coming months. These constraints contribute to historically high cocoa prices, which in turn support elevated chocolate prices globally.

Other factors could also exert upward pressure on chocolate costs. In the U.K., rising minimum wages and higher employee contributions have increased production costs, which are partially passed on to food prices, including chocolate. In the U.S., tariffs on imported goods could similarly add to the cost burden, contributing to higher retail prices in the near term.

In summary, the global chocolate market is experiencing sustained price pressure due to a combination of high cocoa prices, structural supply constraints, and broader inflationary trends. While recent supply improvements and maturing crops in Ecuador and Brazil offer some hope for easing prices, these effects will likely be gradual. Consumers should expect chocolate prices to remain elevated for some time, though conditions could moderately improve by the next Easter season. Overall, the market outlook suggests that high cocoa and chocolate prices are likely to persist, influenced by both supply-side challenges and economic factors such as tariffs and labor costs.